Xi's Thucydides Trap for the US to dodge

Xi Jinping's invocation of the 'Thucydides Trap' at the Beijing summit on Thursday was a carefully staged assertion of primacy. The trap, popularised by political scientist Graham Allison, describes the near-inevitability of war when a rising power challenges an established one, as observed by 5th-c. historian Thucydides about the Peloponnesian War breaking out due to the rise of Athens and the fear this instilled in Sparta. Xi's rhetorical flourish - can China and America avoid it? - was not the anxious plea of a challenger but a confident reminder of a rival that has already arrived.

Trump spoke of tariffs, oil sales and transactional deals. Xi spoke of Taiwan as the fulcrum of peace and of 'a brighter future for humanity'. The US appeared reactive, its president haggling over trade balances and quipping, while China cast itself as calm steward of global stability. The balance of advantage is no longer theoretical. China has demonstrated resilience against US economic aggression, retaliating swiftly to tariffs and proving it can absorb shocks. It commands the supply chains of rare earths, giving Beijing leverage over Washington's tech advantage. Its energy diversification strategy, including interest in US oil, is a way to reduce vulnerability to West Asian turmoil while turning US exports into bargaining chips. Diplomatically, Xi's framing of Taiwan as the 'most important issue' underscored the asymmetry. Mishandling it, Xi warned, would push relations into 'dangerous territory'.

The classical dilemma assumed the ruling power held structural superiority. In 2026, that assumption looks quaint. So, Xi's invocation of Thucydides was a reminder that history's oldest pitfall can be avoided - but only if Washington accepts that the 'rising power' has already arrived, and the two superpowers work for each other's benefit. Trump may have been genuine when, at the official banquet, he thanked his hosts for a 'magnificent welcome like no other'. But maybe the welcome was 'like no other' very differently from what he believes it to be.