Gavin Newsom surges in 2028 primary polls — could California’s governor be the next Democratic nominee?

Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, is quickly garnering attention. He might become the next big name to watch in the race for president in 2028. A new round of polls indicates that Democratic voters are strongly backing him, putting him in a strong position to challenge former Vice President Kamala Harris.

Even though Newsom hasn't officially started a campaign, his rising numbers suggest that Democratic voters are responding to his public fights with Donald Trump and his growing national visibility.

Why is Gavin Newsom getting more support?

According to a recent Echelon Insights poll, Newsom is ranked second among prospective Democratic contenders with 13 percent of the vote, trailing former Vice President Kamala Harris with 26 percent. With a margin of error of 3.6 percent, the survey was conducted among 1,057 registered voters between August 14 and August 18, as quoted in a report by Newsweek.

According to an April Echelon Insights poll, Newsom was only in sixth position with 4 percent, behind Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, both of whom had 7 percent. Harris held the top spot once more with 28 percent.

Ocasio-Cortez came in fourth with 6 percent and Buttigieg in third with 11 percent in the latest survey.

Gavin Newsom has been retaliating against President Trump in recent weeks, especially in the verbal sparring over redistricting. In the meantime, his press office has transformed its social media feed into a barrage of all-caps messages, pop culture parodies, and AI-edited meme content that is specifically designed to make fun of Trump in a fashionable way while opposing Republican objectives, as quoted in a report by Newsweek.

According to Meena Bose, executive dean of the Peter S. Kalikow School of Government, Public Policy, and International Affairs at Hofstra University, polls this far out from a primary are "informative but not necessarily instructive," primarily indicating name recognition or a declared interest in running in 2028, as she told Newsweek last month.

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Both Newsom and Buttigieg are well-known in the public eye, but a clearer picture of who is running and who is in the lead will emerge after the midterms and evolve during debates and early races, Bose stated. It will also be determined whether Ocasio-Cortez is a serious contender after the midterms, as quoted in a report by Newsweek.

Could Kamala Harris keep her edge?

Following her defeat by Trump last year, there is also a significant doubt as to whether Harris will continue. In her first interview after leaving office on January 20, she told Stephen Colbert that she will not compete for governor of California in 2026, although she disputed that this was because she wanted to run for a "different office," presumably another presidential run, as per a report by Newsweek.

After the fatal fires in Los Angeles County in February of 2028, Gavin Newsom has already been rising in the polls.

This week, online bookmaker Polymarket stated that he has a better chance than Ocasio-Cortez of winning the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028. The website projected a hypothetical contest between Newsom and other well-known Democrats, with Newsom at 21 percent and 7 percentage points ahead of Ocasio Cortez.

This represents a 3 percentage point increase over Newsom's 4 percentage point lead over Ocasio-Cortez earlier this month. According to Polymarket, Harris was only on 5%, as quoted in a report by Newsweek.

Moreover, Ocasio-Cortez has not made a formal announcement that she is running for office in 2028.

Newsom's rise in popularity seems to be linked to how hard he has been going after Donald Trump, especially during the heated redistricting battle in Texas.

His communication team has also used social media to post memes, parodies, and sharp one-liners. This is a way to fight Trump on his own turf and get younger voters excited, as quoted in a report by Newsweek.

Is the Democratic Party looking for someone to fight?

Strategists say that Newsom's rise shows that the Democratic base wants a candidate who will stand up to Trump. Mike Madrid, one of the people who started the Lincoln Project, said it best: "Democrats want a fighter." It's not about ideology anymore. The more aggressive Newsom gets, the more people support him.

Voters may be choosing him over more calm candidates because of his aggressive stance. Betting sites like Polymarket have also noticed, and in the past few weeks, Newsom's chances of winning the nomination have been steadily rising.

What's next?

After the midterm elections, most candidates are expected to make formal announcements. Newsom's rising poll numbers could make him feel like he needs to explain what he wants to do. But for now, the governor of California is happy to build momentum by being seen on a national level. Every fight with Trump seems to make him even more popular.


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FAQs

Is Gavin Newsom really running for president in 2028?
No, Newsom hasn't officially said he's running for office yet, but recent polls show that support for him is growing.

Who is in charge of the Democratic Party right now?
Kamala Harris, who used to be the Vice President, is currently in first place. Gavin Newsom is in second place.