Donald Trump the main reason behind Carney-led Liberals' resurgence, stymied Poilievre's march: Ekos poll

Canada is set to welcome Mark Carney-led Liberal Party back to power in the federal election 2025. The helping hand behind the Liberals resurgent in the last few weeks is not from Canada, but from its powerful southern neighbour the United States of America.

According to Canadian public opinion research and consulting firm Ekos Research Associates, Liberals are all set to retain power with a simple majority in Parliament's 343-member House of Commons. The reason behind the massive Liberal uptick, which till January 20-25 looked down and out - US President Donald Trump.

Predicting the figures of its final poll before Canada votes on April 28, Ekos stated that Carney will lead his party to 184 seats, well over the halfway mark of 172.


Conservative Party of Canada led by Pierre Poilievre are projected to bag 133 seats, Bloc Québécois led by Yves-François Blanchet 18, Jagmeet Singh's National Democratic Party six, and Green Party of Canada ending with just two.

Ekos used its three-day rolling IVR poll to predict the final vote outcome which forecast Liberals enjoying a six percentage point lead over the Conservatives. While the Liberals are projected to secure 43.6 per cent of the votes, the Conservatives come second with 37.5 per cent with Jagmeet Singh's National Democratic Party placed at the third place at 9.2 points.

Analyisng its projection, Ekos stated that from December 2024 till mid January '25, it was the Conservative Party which was enjoying a massive lead over the Conservatives after Justin Trudeau stepped down as the Prime Minister of Canada. But by February the graph of Liberals started to rise and at the same time the opposite happened with the Conservatives.

Although in mid-April, Poilievre pushed his party hard and it even overtook Liberals by a miniscule percentage point, Carney got the campaign back on track and ensured that his party was back in the pole position.

"EKOS was alone in noting that the massive Conservative lead had evaporated by the end of January and we then saw the Liberals moving into what appeared to be a majority position roughly a month later. This has been the largest transformation of the voter landscape in modern Canadian history," the research firm said in its statement.

Trump targeting the country's sovereignty with his statement - "Canada should be the 51st state of US" and the massive tariff war unleashed by him, is being put forward as the pivotal reason behind the seismic shift in voter preference.

Carney was seen as the strongest Canadian leader who could stand up to Trump's threats and secure Canada's national identity and sovereignty - both physical and economic.

The Ekos poll predicts Liberals enjoying a nine-point lead in advance vote and the only chance for the Conservatives to prevent its principal rivals from securing power again is a massive late swing. But the scenario appears unlikely as more than 40 per cent of Canadian voters have already exercised their franchise.