Trade Setup: Nifty’s behaviour against 14,500 crucial; dips likely to get bought

Thursday's session is likely to have a quiet start to the day. The levels of 14,610 and 14,685 will act as resistance points, while support will come in at 14,500 and 14,410.

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Nifty’s behavior against 14,500 will be crucial. The index needs to stay above this to avoid any major weakness.
The domestic equity market interrupted its unstoppable up move on Wednesday as it witnessed heavy consolidation on expected lines.

After a smart and strong opening, headline index Nifty tested yet another lifetime high as it marked the high point for the day. However, the morning session had Nifty paring its opening gain and eventually trading flat. Nifty then witnessed a profit taking bout which dragged the index even lower. However, the last hour-and-a-half of the session saw an equally smart recovery from the low point. Nifty recovered over 125 points from its low to close flat with a negligible gain of 1.40 points, or 0.01 per cent.
Nifty
For the second day in a row, the strikes of 14,500 had continued Put writing activity. This ensured that Nifty stayed above this point. While this level has the maximum PUT OI, highest Call OI concentration remained at 14,700 levels. Broadly speaking, the weekly options expiry will heavily influence trend for the day. Nifty’s behavior against the levels of 14,500 will be crucially important as the index will have to keep its head above this point to avoid any major corrective weakness. Volatility inched higher modestly as India VIX climbed by 1.95 per cent to 23.2925.


Thursday's session is likely to have a quiet start to the day. The levels of 14,610 and 14,685 will act as resistance points, while support will come in at 14,500 and 14,410.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is 80.97; it has marked a new 14-period high but stays in the overbought territory. The daily MACD is bullish and trades above the Signal Line.

A candle with a long lower shadow occurred on the charts. Since this has occurred particularly at a high level, this may act as a potential disrupter of the trend. However, given the buoyant undercurrent, and in any case, no candle should be interpreted in isolation. This will need confirmation on the next trading day.

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All in all, Nifty’s behavior against 14,500 will be crucial. The index needs to stay above this to avoid any major weakness. Nifty PCR (all expiries) stood at a healthy 1.51, which is a good sign. As per the current technical setup, though the market in general will continue to stay prone to profit taking bouts, all dips are likely to get bought into.

In the present scenario, we recommend attempting any major short positions unless the market shows indication of the formation of a potential top. Until this happens, we recommend following the trend, while strictly trailing stop-losses and protecting profits vigilantly at higher levels.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, is a Consulting Technical Analyst and founder of Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com.)
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